This article by Carlo Trezza was originally published by the EU Non-proliferation and Disarmament Consortium in their September 2021 newsletter. Basel Peace Office, a member of the Consortium, thanks them for the permission to republish this important article.
It's Time to Adopt a No-First-Use policy
By Carlo Trezza, Member of Unione degli Scienziati Per Il Disarmo. Former Italy Ambassador to the UN Conference on Disarmament. Steering Committee Member of NoFirstUse Global.
No head of state or government in his right mind would decide today to use nuclear weapons first, unleashing a catastrophic conflict. Yet, only a few nuclear weapons states have so far adopted the concept of No First Use (NFU) of nuclear weapons. China did so in 1964 and in 1994 submitted a draft "Treaty on the Mutual Non-Use of Nuclear Weapons" to the other nuclear-armed states.
In 1998, Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee announced a NFU policy which was more recently confirmed by current Prime Minister Modi. During the Cold War even the Soviet Union adopted the NFU policy subsequently abandoned by the Russian Federation.
Presently, the majority of nuclear states, including NATO members, prefer not to renounce their first use option, keeping their adversaries uncertain as to their response if victims of a non-nuclear first attack (conventional, chemical, biological). Such uncertainties have only increased with the more insidious appearance of cyber weapons.
The concept of NFU is hardly debated internationally and more efforts must be made to fill this void. NoFirstUse Global, a network of organizations was launched on 15 July 2021, precisely to promote the NFU concept which is attracting increasing political, media and public attention. Over 1200 political, military and religious leaders, legislators, academics and scientists (around 200 from Europe) endorsed an Open Letter sent to Presidents Biden and Putin promoting NFU prior to their June 16 Summit in Geneva.
Additional parliamentary initiatives on both sides of the Atlantic support NFU policies.
All eyes are now focused on the Biden administration which is reviewing the US nuclear posture. President Biden has, on various occasions, shown interest in the NFU concept. A possible US opening might pave the way towards a consensus even within NATO. The European Union does not speak with a single voice in NATO and has difficulty in reaching consensus on nuclear disarmament issues.
However, it is hard to believe that any responsible European leader would endorse a nuclear first use decision. This includes European nuclear armed states. In fact, their nuclear arsenals are basically geared to a second-strike scenario. Nothing prevents the EU countries from addressing this issue in the framework of EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy. The independent think tanks belonging to the EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Consortium must also debate and study this subject.
A commitment in favour of the NFU will not solve all nuclear problems, but a nuclear war cannot break out if all countries possessing nuclear weapons agree not to use them first.